Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys.Tonight NFL Week 14 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 50) at Dallas Cowboys
The Bengals (4-8) have dropped four of their last five games and just came up short against the Steelers 44-38, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Cowboys (5-7) have won two in a row and just dismissed the Giants 27-20, covering as 4.5-point home favorites.The early opening line for this game was Bengals -6.5 on the road. The public still believes in Joe Burrow and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Cincinnati. However, despite receiving 72% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -6.5 to -5.5, with some shops even falling further to -5 on gameday. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Cowboys, as the line has consistently moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play. In other words, if the public is hammering the Bengals, why are the oddsmakers dropping the line to make it easier for the public to cover? Because respected smart money has come down on the side of Dallas and the points.
Dallas is only receiving 28% of spread bets at DraftKings, offering notable “bet against the public” value in a heavily bet primetime game. At Circa, which prides itself on taking bigger, sharper wagers, the Cowboys are receiving 47% of spread bets but a hefty 65% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Primetime home dogs getting 5-points or more are 23-12 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2020. Dallas has a notable rest advantage, as they last played on Thanksgiving (November 28th) while Cincinnati played last Sunday (December 1st).
While the Bengals have the superior offense (27.9 PPG vs 20.7 PPG), both teams are tied for 2nd to last in points allowed (28.3 PPG). Over the past three games in particular, Cincinnati is allowing 37.7 PPG while Dallas is giving up 26.7 PPG. Cincinnati’s porous defense could allow the Cowboys to put up points and secure the cover. The Bengals also just placed starting LB and “green dot” signal caller Logan Wilson on season ending IR, providing another hit to Cincinnati’s already reeling defense. Cooper Rush is 7-3 ATS (70%) as a dog in his career.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a hefty move toward the over as the line has risen from as low as 44.5 to 50. The over is receiving 76% of bets and 74% of dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, the over is taking in 90% of bets and 98% of dollars. Both books are showing a hefty “Pro and Joe” bet split with overwhelming over action from both sharps and the betting public. Monday Night Football overs are 12-4 (75%) this season. These are two of the best over teams in the NFL, with the Bengals 9-3 to the over (2nd) and the Cowboys 8-4 to the over (5th). Those looking to play the over would be wise to shop around, as a couple shops are hanging 49.5 instead of the consensus 50.
